Latter-day Apostles Data

How is this calculated?

The Church uses a strict seniority-based succession system: when the President dies, the senior-most apostle (by ordination date) automatically becomes the new President. This means predicting who will become President is essentially a question of who will outlive whom.

For each apostle, we calculate the probability they'll become President in any given future year. This requires two things to happen: (1) all apostles senior to them must have passed away by that year, and (2) they themselves must still be alive. We use actuarial mortality tables—statistical data showing the probability of death at each age—to estimate these survival probabilities. The tables used here are based on Society of Actuaries data for white-collar male annuitants.

The current President's line shows his probability of remaining President (i.e., still being alive). Other apostles start near 0% and rise as their seniors age, peak when they're most likely to hold the office, then decline as their own mortality increases.

Note: These are statistical estimates only. They assume no changes to the succession system and cannot account for individual health factors. The calculations update automatically as the apostle data changes. For more detailed analyses, see Zelophehad's Daughters or ProphetPredict.com.