Confirmation bias refers to the cognitive tendency of individuals to interpret or seek out information in a way that confirms their preexisting beliefs or hypotheses. When someone experiences confirmation bias, they are more likely to notice, remember, and give greater weight to information that supports their existing beliefs, while disregarding or downplaying evidence that contradicts them. This bias can occur in various domains, including politics, religion, personal relationships, and more.
You favor things that confirm your existing beliefs.
We are primed to see and agree with ideas that fit our preconceptions, and to ignore and dismiss information that conflicts with them. You could say that this is the mother of all biases, as it affects so much of our thinking through motivated reasoning.
Your Bias Is Confirmation Bias
https://yourbias.is/confirmation-bias
Confirmation bias is a tendency to look for, interpret, and recall information in ways that affirm our preconception. Whenever we encounter objective facts on an issue we look at them through the lens of our own beliefs. As a result, we see and overrate where the two intercept. The bias is strongest for emotionally charged issues or when we search for desired outcomes.
The Confirmation Bias
https://sproutsschools.com/confirmation-bias/
Confirmation bias is the tendency of people to overvalue data that supports their own beliefs.
One of the many cognitive biases, whether based on fear (e.g., ‘I’m going to lose my job’) or inaccurate and/or incomplete data (e.g., a stereotype), someone who falls victim to confirmation bias will form an opinion and then seek out and/or overvalue data that supports that opinion. In the former example of losing your job, because of worry over losing your job, you would begin to ‘notice’ things that seemed to support that theory…
The pattern is to form a theory (often based on emotion) supported by insufficient data, and then to restrict critical thinking and ongoing analysis, which is, of course, irrational. Instead, you look for data that fits your theory.
What Is Confirmation Bias? A Brief Overview
https://www.teachthought.com/critical-thinking/confirmation-bias-definition/
Individuals display confirmation bias when they prefer information that supports their views and ignore contrary information, or even when they interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting their existing ideas. In the context of religious ideology, confirmation bias manifests when individuals seek out information or experiences that validate their religious beliefs while ignoring or dismissing information that contradicts them. For example, someone deeply committed to a particular religious faith may interpret personal experiences, such as feelings of peace or inspiration, as evidence of the truth of their beliefs. They may also seek out religious texts, sermons, or teachings that align with their faith, reinforcing their convictions. They would likely downplay or rationalize away evidence or arguments that challenge their beliefs.
For the LDS church, there is a famous pattern to follow which teaches how to gain a testimony in the truthfulness of the church. It is hard to find a better example of confirmation bias than Moroni’s Promise. Here’s a statement from church leader and Seventy, Elder Gene R. Cook, teaching about this promise in a talk at General Conference in 1994. He explains the secret is that to confirm the truth, one must at least have the belief that he has found something true. Then pray to request confirmation of our own conclusions. And even then, the response may not be exactly how or when we expect.
If we want an answer from God, we will move ourselves out of a neutral position and let our desire to believe that God can help us begin to work in us… The Lord offers us the opportunity to let him confirm truth already in our hearts. But in order to confirm religious truth, one must at least have the idea, or the thought, or the belief (however small) that he has found something true, and then pray to receive the Lord’s confirmation… Thus, our prayer, in essence, is a request for a confirmation of our own conclusions from our pondering. The Lord may not respond exactly how and when we expect, but still our obedience to these conditions qualifies us to receive an answer; this is the scope of the process described in these verses.
Elder Gene R. Cook (Then of the Seventy), “Moroni’s Promise”, General Conference, April 1994
https://www.churchofjesuschrist.org/study/ensign/1994/04/moronis-promise?lang=eng
Religious confirmation bias is so powerful because beliefs about the divine or supernatural often involve deeply held emotional attachments and existential concerns. People may be highly motivated to maintain their religious beliefs because they provide comfort, meaning, and a sense of identity. In religious communities, confirmation bias can be reinforced by social dynamics, such as peer pressure, groupthink, and the desire for acceptance within the community. Individuals may be more likely to uncritically accept information or interpretations of religious doctrine that are endorsed by religious authorities or trusted community members.
Confirmation bias can have several underlying causes. One is the natural human tendency to seek coherence and consistency in one’s beliefs and values. People may also be motivated to maintain a positive self-image and protect their ego, leading them to selectively process information that aligns with their self-perception.
Confirmation bias hinders critical thinking and the ability to objectively evaluate evidence. It leads to the formation of echo chambers, where individuals surround themselves with like-minded people or only consume information that reinforces their existing beliefs. As a result, confirmation bias can contribute to polarization, misunderstandings, and the persistence of misinformation or misconceptions. This bias leads individuals to perceive their beliefs as more rational and justified than they objectively are.
In the 1960s, cognitive psychologist Peter Wason conducted several experiments known as Wason’s rule discovery task. He demonstrated that people tend to seek information that confirms their existing beliefs…
Signs of Confirmation Bias
When it comes to confirmation bias, there are often signs that a person is inadvertently or consciously falling victim to it. Unfortunately, it can also be very subtle and difficult to spot. Some of these signs that might help you identify when you or someone else is experiencing this bias include:
What Is Confirmation Bias? Cherrypicking the Facts to Support an Existing Belief, by Kendra Cherry
- Only seeking out information that confirms your beliefs and ignoring or discredit information that doesn’t support them.
- Looking for evidence that confirms what you already think is true, rather than considering all of the evidence available.
- Relying on stereotypes or personal biases when assessing information.
- Selectively remembering information that supports your views while forgetting or discounting information that doesn’t.
- Having a strong emotional reaction to information (positive or negative) that confirms your beliefs, while remaining relatively unaffected by information that doesn’t.
https://www.verywellmind.com/what-is-a-confirmation-bias-2795024
• We actively seek information that supports our preconceptions.
• We avoid objective information that could disprove our beliefs.
• We interpret facts to fit and even reinforce our existing views.
• We remember information that confirms our beliefs.
• We downplay or ignore evidence that challenges our beliefs.
• We have strong emotional reactions to confirming information.
Cults Exploit Confirmation Bias
Cults often exploit confirmation bias as a means of maintaining control over their members and preventing them from questioning or leaving the group.
- Selective Information: Cults carefully control the information that members have access to, providing them with material that reinforces the group’s beliefs while discouraging or censoring dissenting views. By restricting exposure to outside information, cult leaders can create an echo chamber where members only encounter ideas that align with the group’s ideology.
- Emotional Manipulation: Cults use emotional manipulation techniques to deepen members’ commitment to the group and its beliefs. Members may be subjected to love-bombing, praise, and validation when they conform to the group’s teachings, while dissenters are shamed, ostracized, or punished. This creates a strong emotional incentive for members to seek out information that confirms their allegiance to the group and avoid anything that might challenge it.
- Group Dynamics: Cults often foster a sense of camaraderie and belonging among members, creating a tight-knit community where conformity is rewarded and dissent is discouraged. Group pressure and social reinforcement can make it difficult for individuals to express doubts or question the group’s teachings, as they fear rejection or isolation from their peers.
- Us vs. Them Mentality: Cults frequently promote an “us vs. them” mentality, portraying the outside world as hostile or dangerous and the group as the only source of truth and salvation. This reinforces members’ sense of identity and loyalty to the group, making them more inclined to dismiss or discredit information that contradicts their beliefs.
- Cognitive Dissonance Reduction: When faced with information that challenges their beliefs, individuals in cults may experience cognitive dissonance—the psychological discomfort arising from conflicting beliefs or attitudes. To alleviate this discomfort, they may engage in various forms of mental gymnastics, such as rationalization or reinterpretation, to maintain their faith in the group’s teachings.
By manipulating information, emotions, social dynamics, and cognitive processes, religion exploits confirmation bias to create a closed system of belief that reinforces members’ loyalty and obedience to the church. This makes it extremely challenging for anyone to question or evaluate their involvement in the cult.
Apologists famously start with their conclusion and then seek out any facts that may fit the conclusion. They jettison anything that challenges the conclusion. They are actively and consciously working with confirmation bias to keep their minds closed to their current belief system.
How To Avoid Confirmation Bias?
To avoid the trap of confirmation bias, we need to constantly re-evaluate what we believe we know. We must consider new information, while also validating the quality and quantity of information. We can also embrace the possibility that we’re likely wrong more often than not. We must be open to new ideas, and at least entertain them. This doesn’t mean we must immediately throw out everything we thought we knew, but it is important to reconsider our thoughts and beliefs we assumed were previously set in stone. We are biased against evidence that undermines our current beliefs, so maybe we shouldn’t hold so tightly to current beliefs but try to have an open mind.
People are biased against evidence that undermines their pre-existing beliefs. They tend to dismiss such evidence and focus instead on things that confirm their beliefs. With his discovery of the phenomenon that today we call confirmation bias, Bacon had put his finger on a major problem for progress. With confirmation bias unchecked, how could society efficiently gain new knowledge?
[Francis] Bacon argued that people should concentrate on systematic observation and experimentation. This seeded the blossoming of modern science that occurred in the 17th-century. Bacon thought that once his philosophy was sufficiently developed, it would “open up and lay down a new and certain pathway from the perceptions of the senses themselves to the mind.”
Confirmation bias in science, Alex Holcombe
https://alexholcombe.medium.com/confirmation-bias-in-science-39031b9ccab6
Confirmation Bias in History
Confirmation bias was known to the ancient Greeks. It was described by the classical historian Thucydides, in his text The History of the Peloponnesian. He wrote: “It is a habit of mankind to entrust to careless hope what they long for and to use sovereign reason to thrust aside what they do not want.’’
Why do we favor our existing beliefs? The Confirmation Bias, explained.
https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/confirmation-bias
The human understanding, when it has adopted an opinion, forces everything else to add fresh support and confirmation; and although more cogent and abundant instances may exist to the contrary, yet it either does not observe them or it despises them, or it gets rid of and rejects them by some distinction, with violent and injurious prejudice, rather than sacrifice the authority of its first conclusions.
Novum Organum, by Francis Bacon (originally in Latin)
https://books.google.com/books?id=Xc9xDgHgvaYC&newbks=1&newbks_redir=0&pg=PA23#v=onepage&q&f=false
The term confirmation bias was coined by phycologist Peter Wason.
Peter Cathcart Wason (1924 – 2003) was a cognitive psychologist at University College, London, who pioneered the psychology of reasoning. He sought to explain why people consistently commit logical errors. He designed problems and tests to demonstrate these behaviours. He also coined the term “confirmation bias” to describe the tendency for people to immediately favor information that validates their preconceptions, hypotheses and personal beliefs regardless of whether they are true or not.
Before the creation of psychology of reasoning, it was a commonly held belief that humans reasoned by logical analysis. Wason argued against this logicism, saying that humans are unable to reason, and quite frequently fall prey to biases. Wason thought many of the things in his life were inconsistent and therefore unreasonable. When he designed his experiments, Wason’s goal was to examine the illogical nature of humans. Wason also wanted to look further into the confirmation bias, the tendency to strive toward proving one’s hypothesis instead of disproving it.
Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia: Peter Cathcart Wason
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Cathcart_Wason
Did you experience confirmation bias in your own faith deconstruction? Do you see it with believers as you discuss things like the gospel topic essays or the changing narrative of the church? Did you see the confirmation bias when following Moroni’s promise? Share your struggles through confirmation bias and how you learned to overcome at least some of the bias and take a fresh look at your own beliefs. Tell your own “I was a Mormon” story and explain why you left. Join the hundreds of others who have shared their deconversion story at wasmormon.org.
More reading:
- Moroni’s Promise – A Lesson in Confirmation Bias and Elevated Emotions
- Elevation and Other Elevated Emotions
- I Know The Church Is True
- Illusory Truth Effect
- How Could Mormonism Not Be True?
- https://www.verywellmind.com/what-is-a-confirmation-bias-2795024
- https://yourbias.is/confirmation-bias
- https://www.teachthought.com/critical-thinking/confirmation-bias-definition/
- https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/confirmation-bias
- https://www.teachthought.com/critical-thinking/the-difference-between-logical-fallacies-and-cognitive-biases/
- You Are Not So Smart: Why You Have Too Many Friends on Facebook, Why Your Memory Is Mostly Fiction, and 46 Other Ways You’re Deluding Yourself by David McRaney https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1592407366?tag=circubstu-20
- Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0374533555/?tag=circubstu-20
- Rigor Mortis: How Sloppy Science Creates Worthless Cures, Crushes Hope, and Wastes Billions by Richard Harris https://www.amazon.com/Rigor-Mortis-Science-Worthless-Billions/dp/0465097901?tag=circubstu-20
- https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_Report.cfm?Lab=CESER&dirEntryId=350904